Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 36.599153 39.796792 43.340460 47.598925 52.632967 58.467578 65.854488
2025-08-10 32.074750 36.260832 41.240737 47.741578 56.233123 67.317685 83.601923
2025-08-17 28.812263 33.296950 38.855977 46.489597 57.130806 72.234668 97.155594
2025-08-24 26.417645 31.007041 36.866055 45.219697 57.466954 76.088171 110.170250
2025-08-31 25.639955 30.633748 37.231248 47.071774 62.439559 88.042568 142.581007
2025-09-07 24.043085 29.011222 35.702768 45.947730 62.566567 91.910976 161.425331
2025-09-14 22.748582 27.683431 34.442319 45.031989 62.812516 95.983172 183.600334
2025-09-21 21.285225 26.023653 32.573766 42.969779 60.772224 95.078617 192.130156
2025-09-28 20.493098 25.243178 31.908000 42.711774 61.829389 100.784627 225.897497
2025-10-05 20.556440 25.658023 33.009119 45.393913 68.711935 121.868782 351.966099
2025-10-12 19.796225 24.841798 32.191759 44.775668 69.111286 127.513973 424.978717
2025-10-19 19.461744 24.622412 32.266806 45.687880 72.778604 143.668360 645.314477
2025-10-26 18.835421 24.062818 31.963141 46.267746 76.757771 166.579095 1380.717471
2025-11-02 18.131330 23.361191 31.406700 46.385357 79.986094 191.748371 6232.064577
2025-11-09 17.261769 22.346768 30.247897 45.193835 79.746130 203.866808 NaN
2025-11-16 16.476093 21.414010 29.150770 43.983698 79.175525 214.752959 NaN
2025-11-23 16.279420 21.375608 29.535638 45.748218 87.057845 284.084960 NaN
2025-11-30 15.635709 20.597223 28.597108 44.677605 86.650451 303.631430 NaN
2025-12-07 15.075230 19.923339 27.795000 43.804726 86.640753 328.481118 NaN
2025-12-14 14.385329 19.014781 26.534156 41.836820 82.834789 315.419870 NaN
2025-12-21 14.004842 18.585865 26.090944 41.590395 84.449843 359.180671 NaN
2025-12-28 14.053960 18.847822 26.883038 44.149782 96.363248 606.856639 NaN
2026-01-04 13.664019 18.374173 26.315725 43.560294 97.000617 700.291791 NaN